Sometimes the biggest news doesn’t end up being the biggest influence on an election.

Right now, Venezuela and Greenland, and the American posture toward those lands, are all over the news, and the consequences of what happens are momentous: Will the United States send troops to Venezuela? Will Congress reassert its constitutional authority on the power to declare war? Will the NATO alliance survive? These are all big questions. Will the way they are answered matter to enough voters to help determine the results of the 2026 elections?

Maybe not as much as former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola’s decision to run for the Senate from Alaska, potentially putting into play a seat in a Republican-friendly state occupied by a Republican.

What about Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s decision not to seek reelection? By itself, maybe not. But how Walz manages the powder keg that is his state — with ICE agents shooting people in the street, protests of the federal immigration crackdown intensifying and a fraud investigation of the state’s social welfare apparatus underway — could be highly determinative.

In one of the iconic lines from “The Wire,” veteran detective Lester Freamon tells his younger colleague, Roland “Prez” Pryzbylewski, that “All the pieces matter.” In politics, they do. Just not equally.

Show Notes:

• At the Races: Spotlight Minnesota
• Senate Democrats still have difficult path to majority
• 6 key questions about the 2026 midterm elections
• Former Rep. Mary Peltola enters Alaska Senate race in boost to Democrats
• The Political Theater Podcast archives
• Political Theater on YouTube
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