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By Mary Ellen McIntire and Daniela Altimari

It’s referendum day in Virginia, where voters will decide on a proposed constitutional amendment to redraw the commonwealth’s congressional map in a way that would overwhelmingly favor Democrats. 

Virginia’s 11 congressional districts are currently split nearly evenly, with Democrats holding six seats to Republicans’ five. But the proposed new lines would give Democrats four new pickup opportunities, leaving them favored to win 10 of the commonwealth’s 11 House seats this fall. 

Republicans would be left with a single deep-red district in the western part of Virginia, while Democrat-leaning voters would be spread across the remaining districts. The amendment, if adopted, would have the commonwealth return to using its voter-approved independent redistricting commission only after the 2030 census.

Both parties have engaged in mid-decade redistricting in several states this cycle, hoping for any advantage in the midterm elections. Texas Republicans kicked off the effort last summer when, at President Donald Trump’s urging, they redrew their congressional map to create five new pickup opportunities for the GOP. Other states followed, including Republican-run Missouri and North Carolina and Democrat-controlled California, where voters approved a new map by a significant margin. Redistricting is also on the agenda in GOP-led Florida when state legislators meet for a special session next week. 

Unlike the vote in California, the outcome of Tuesday’s election seems likely to be closer. The few independent polls have shown a tight race, with the pro-redistricting side narrowly ahead.  

The referendum has drawn significant outside spending over the past few months. AdImpact, which tracks political spending, said last week that there’s been over $70 million in ad spending and reservations, the bulk of it on behalf of the “yes” side. 

Both parties have also relied on surrogates to help turn out voters and draw attention to the election. Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries made stops in Virginia this month. Republican former Gov. Glenn Youngkin has been traveling across the commonwealth campaigning against the measure, while incumbent Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger cut an ad urging a “yes” vote. And Trump held a tele-rally Monday night to urge votes against the referendum.

“Tomorrow, your commonwealth has an incredible and really an important election in every sense of the word that will have major consequences for our entire country this November,” Trump said, according to Virginia Scope. “This is really a country election. The whole country is watching.”

Jeffries said at a news conference Monday that he expected the election to be close, calling Virginia a “purple state.”

“The voters of Virginia have an opportunity to ensure that there’s a fair national congressional map, because we believe that it’s the voters of Virginia and the people of this country who should decide which party is in the majority in the aftermath of the midterm elections,” he said. 

Still, the result of Tuesday’s referendum wouldn’t necessarily be the final word on the congressional map. The Supreme Court of Virginia allowed the vote to move forward, but legal challenges to the referendum and the underlying process behind getting it to the ballot are still pending before the court.

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