Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. There’s been a rather predictable bit of House Republican dissension this week after Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee saw Republican Matt Van Epps, who was sworn in Thursday morning, prevail by 9 points in a district that Donald Trump carried by 22 points a little over a year earlier. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., filed a discharge petition this week on a measure designed to force a vote on prohibiting stock trading by members of Congress. Among the early signatories on the petition was New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who serves as chair of House Republican Leadership and is running for governor. Beyond the discharge petition, Stefanik went directly after Speaker Mike Johnson in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “Whereas Kevin McCarthy was a political animal, Mike Johnson is a political novice and, boy, does it show, with the House Republicans underperforming for the first time in the Trump era,” she said. Stefanik, in a later post on X, said, “I had a very productive conversation with Speaker Johnson last night and I shared my views that House Republicans need to focus on delivering results to the American people.” Meanwhile, South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace — who, like fellow Republican Stefanik, is running for governor of her home state — reportedly might quit early, as Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is doing in January. Mace denied the report on X but said, “There’s frustration that discharge petitions are the only way to move things through the House.” “I loathe how slow Congress moves. I loathe we haven’t delivered on President Trump’s agenda. I loathe serious lawmakers aren’t taken seriously. I loathe the press making stories up. I loathe the politics of lies. Nowhere did I say I was retiring. Internet is wild. So too are those spreading this nonsense,” she said. Starting gate Tennessee special: While they came up short in Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee, Democrats argued that Van Epps’ relatively modest victory margin in a deep-red district is a sign that the 2026 battleground is expanding. For Republicans, meanwhile, the outcome served as a reminder that they need to focus on addressing affordability concerns heading into the 2026 midterms. Cuellar pardon: Trump surprised many with his pardon of Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, who was facing charges of money laundering, bribery and conspiracy to commit honest services wire fraud. After Trump’s announcement, Cuellar filed for reelection as a Democrat in his South Texas battleground district. He drew a major Republican challenger this week in Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat. Indiana map: Republicans in the Indiana House released a draft map this week that aims to deliver all nine of the state’s congressional seats to the GOP. The measure advanced out of the chamber’s elections committee Tuesday and now awaits a floor vote. Still unknown: whether the Trump-backed plan has the votes to pass in the Republican-controlled state Senate. Staying put: Democratic Rep. Don Davis says he plans to seek reelection from North Carolina’s redrawn 1st District, even though the seat grew significantly redder under the new map passed by state Republicans and his home was drawn out of the district. Retirements keep coming: Texas Rep. Troy Nehls, a Trump ally who has regularly incorporated the president into his fashion choices, is the latest lawmaker to announce he won’t seek reelection next year. His twin brother, Trever Nehls, is running to succeed the third-term Republican. Meanwhile, longtime New York Rep. Nydia M. Velázquez, who has represented parts of Brooklyn and Queens for more than 30 years, announced last month that she’s retiring, saying it was “the right moment to step aside and allow a new generation of leaders to step forward.” #ALGOV: Democratic former Sen. Doug Jones is running for governor of Alabama, setting up a likely rematch with Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who unseated him in 2020. Jones won a Senate special election in 2017, making him the last Democrat to be elected statewide in the ruby-red state. New Jersey special: New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy set an April 16 special election to complete Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s House term. A dozen Democrats, including Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, are running for the seat and will compete in a Feb. 5 primary. Marc Chaaban, a former Capitol Hill aide, announced Wednesday that he was ending his campaign, saying in a statement that “the compressed timeline of this special election simply doesn’t afford the runway we need to win.” #CAGOV: Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, a vocal Trump critic, kicked off his run for governor last month and picked up the support of timeshare magnate Stephen Cloobeck, who dropped his own gubernatorial bid. Another recent Democratic entrant, billionaire activist Tom Steyer, nabbed the endorsement of progressive Rep. Ro Khanna. ICYMI To run for Senate or not: Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna S. Pressley will not challenge Sen. Edward J. Markey in the Democratic primary next year and will seek reelection instead. Had she run, Pressley, a member of the progressive “squad,” would have joined a primary field that includes Rep. Seth Moulton. Meanwhile, Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett may be gearing up for a Senate bid, with a “special announcement” planned for Monday. Former Rep. Colin Allred and state Rep. James Talarico are already running for the Democratic nod for the seat of Republican John Cornyn, who is locked in his own contentious primary. Redistricting roundup: Florida is the latest state to take steps toward redrawing its congressional map next year, with a select committee of the Republican-controlled House meeting for the first time on Thursday. Gov. Ron DeSantis told The Floridian that he will call a special session of the Florida Legislature in the spring to consider a new map. Meanwhile, the incoming chief of staff to New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill said mid-decade redistricting isn’t off the table, although it could be 2028 before the Garden State sees a new map. #ALSEN: ESPN and SEC Network analyst Paul Finebaum won’t be running to succeed Tuberville in the Senate, telling AL.com he wants to “devote my full attention to something everyone in Alabama can agree upon — our love of college football.” Republicans already running for the open seat include Rep. Barry Moore and state Attorney General Steve Marshall. #IL04: Democratic activist Mayra Macías launched an independent campaign for Illinois’ 4th District, which Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García is vacating. She told NOTUS that she “would have run as a Democrat if this process had been open and fair,” a reference to the congressman timing his retirement announcement to ensure his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, was the sole Democrat to file before the deadline. #CT03: Longtime Democratic Rep. Rosa DeLauro has drawn another primary challenger, with molecular biologist Andrew Rice, a Democratic Socialists of America member from Milford, launching his campaign this week. #KYSEN: Former Kentucky state Rep. Charles Booker is once again running for Senate in the deep-red state. Booker enters a crowded Democratic primary to succeed retiring Republican Mitch McConnell and faces a rematch with Marine veteran Amy McGrath, who narrowly beat him in a 2020 primary. Booker also waged an unsuccessful bid to unseat GOP Sen. Rand Paul in 2022. Guv roundup: Former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is the latest Democrat to announce a campaign to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers. In Florida, investment firm CEO James Fischback has entered the Republican primary for governor, which already features Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds. GOP incumbent Ron DeSantis is term-limited. In Rhode Island, Republican Aaron Guckian, a former gubernatorial aide who lost a 2022 lieutenant governor bid by single digits, kicked off a bid this week for the state’s top executive office. In Minnesota, attorney Chris Madel has joined the busy Republican primary to take on Democratic-Farmer-Labor Gov. Tim Walz, while former MyPillow CEO and Trump ally Mike Lindell filed paperwork for a gubernatorial run but told The Minnesota Star Tribune his bid “isn’t 100 percent yet.” Endorsement tracker: In Illinois, former Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon has endorsed Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s campaign for Senate, while former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is backing Democrat Melissa Bean’s comeback bid in the crowded primary to succeed Krishnamoorthi. In Minnesota, Democratic Rep. Angie Craig has the support of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in her campaign for the state’s open Senate seat. And in Virginia, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger has endorsed former Henrico County prosecutor Shannon Taylor in the crowded Democratic primary for the 1st District, while former Rep. Elaine Luria won the backing of VoteVets and New Politics in the Democratic primary for the 2nd District. More endorsements: Maggie’s List, which backs conservative women, rolled out new endorsements this week, including in several House races. The group is backing Iowa state Rep. Shannon Lundgren, who’s running for the open 2nd District; former Texas Rep. Mayra Flores, who is seeking a rematch with Democrat Vicente Gonzalez; Virginia state Sen. Tara Durant, who is running against Democratic freshman Eugene Vindman; and Anna Medvedeva, who is challenging Democrat Lois Frankel in Florida’s 22nd District. The group also endorsed Stefanik’s campaign for governor of New York. Nathan’s notes Tuesday’s outcome in Tennessee is just the latest piece of evidence that 2026 is beginning to look a lot like a traditional midterm election, writes Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections. With the president’s approval ratings underwater and Democrats continuing to overperform in special elections, things appear to be matching up with historical trends, according to Nathan. What we’re reading Redistricting on hold: Politico profiled Maryland state Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat who has been his party’s biggest obstacle to redrawing its congressional map ahead of next year’s midterm elections. Dems vs. Dems: The progressive group Demand Justice launched a weeklong ad campaign targeting three senators — Democrats John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Maine independent Angus King, who caucuses with the party — for supporting some of Trump’s nominees. None of the three will face voters next year, but Josh Orton, the group’s president, told The Associated Press that the ad blitz could grow as the group seeks to “change Senate Democratic behavior so that they begin acting in a more moral way and in a more politically expedient way.” Spotlight on Shapiro: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro discusses everything from his faith to his thoughts on the 2028 election in a lengthy profile in The Atlantic. Among the more explosive details was the Democrat’s anger at Kamala Harris’ account of why she didn’t choose him as her 2024 running mate. The aftermath of a tragedy: Former Illinois state Sen. Darren Bailey has resumed his campaign for governor, less than two months after losing his son, daughter-in-law and two grandchildren in a helicopter crash in Montana. The Republican, who lost to Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker in 2022, told the Chicago Tribune he was humbled by the devastating loss and chastened by an outpouring of sympathy from politicians on both sides of the aisle, including Trump. The count: 14 That’s the number of counties that lie either fully or partly in Tennessee’s 7th District. And in each of them, Democrat Aftyn Behn outperformed Kamala Harris’ 2024 margins by at least 6.9 points in Tuesday’s special election. The biggest jump came in the district’s slice of Davidson County, home to Nashville and the only one to back Behn. Harris carried this portion of the district by 36 points last year. Behn won it by 56 points on Tuesday. Behn, however, wasn’t able to make as much headway in the district’s other counties, including the high population centers of Williamson (in suburban Nashville) and Montgomery (home to Clarksville), which, as NBC News analyst Steve Kornacki reported, represented potential missed opportunities for Democrats. — by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly Coming up Monday is the candidate filing deadline in Texas as the state awaits a ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court on which congressional map to use for the 2026 elections. Photo finish West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito holds a picture of the late West Virginia National Guard member Sarah Beckstrom during a Tuesday news conference at the Capitol. Beckstrom, along with National Guardsman Andrew Wolfe, was shot in a targeted attack on Nov. 26 while on duty blocks from the White House. She died from her injuries on Thanksgiving Day, while Wolfe remains in serious condition. Trump ordered flags to be flown at half-staff Thursday in Beckstrom’s honor. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call) Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
