The House Appropriations Committee is set to undergo a major shake-up following the midterm elections, especially among its Republicans.

With four members retiring, two running for Senate and four others in potentially tight reelection contests, nearly a third of the committee’s Republicans may not return in the next Congress.

Democrats are looking at a lower level of turnover, with two retirements and four tight reelection contests. But three ranking members on Appropriations subcommittees are at risk of not returning, with one retirement and two in electoral danger.

The Republican shuffle would vault some members with less seniority further up the committee’s hierarchy and allow new members to join, paving the way for a potentially vast reshaping of the committee.

As a result, no matter which party wins control of the House after November’s elections, the panel that oversees roughly $1.7 trillion in annual discretionary spending promises to feature a slew of new faces when it organizes for business in January.

Republican churn

Three of the 12 top GOP subcommittee posts could be open in the next Congress. Homeland Security Subcommittee Chairman Mark Amodei, R-Nev., announced last month that he would retire after this term.

Amodei, first elected to Congress in 2011, oversees what has been the most difficult appropriations bill this funding cycle. The Department of Homeland Security has faced a partial shutdown for over a month in a bitter standoff over immigration enforcement policies.

Another senior appropriator, Defense Subcommittee Chairman Ken Calvert, R-Calif., is locked in a tough reelection campaign due to redistricting. He is facing off against Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif., and others in a multi-candidate primary that is expected to be a close race.

Calvert’s gavel is the most sought-after on the Republican side, and he is already serving under a waiver, as GOP rules bar subcommittee chairs from serving in the position for more than three consecutive terms.

If he is reelected, Calvert and Military Construction-VA Subcommittee Chairman John Carter, R-Texas, would need waivers again to remain in their roles. If Calvert were to lose reelection or be denied a waiver, Transportation-HUD Subcommittee Chairman Steve Womack, R-Ark., is seen as the most likely replacement.

Another “cardinal,” as Appropriations subcommittee chairs are called, who faces a tight reelection battle is Legislative Branch Subcommittee Chairman David Valadao, R- Calif. His seat is rated Tilt Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. The district became slightly more blue in redistricting — Donald Trump’s 2024 margin there fell from 6 percentage points to 2 points under the new map.

Amodei’s retirement will mean at least one subcommittee chair or ranking member position will be open, a number that could rise to as high as three if Calvert and Valadao both lose reelection.

Next in line for a gavel would have been Rep. Dan Newhouse, R-Wash., but he is also retiring. Newhouse and Valadao are the only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Newhouse’s retirement will elevate Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Mich., into a subcommittee leadership role. Moolenaar is the chairman of the select committee on competition with China, and has focused on China and promoting charter schools during his time in Congress.

Rep. John Rutherford, R-Fla., is next up. He’s been focused on immigration enforcement and defense during his time on the committee, with many of his constituents serving at major military bases — including Naval Station Mayport and Marine Corps Blount Island Command.

Four of the next five most senior Republican appropriators may not be back in the next Congress, which would wipe out a lot of the middle of the party’s seniority list.

Rep. Ben Cline, R-Va., is fighting a redistricting push by Virginia Democrats that would endanger his seat. Virginia voters are set to vote April 21 on a new map that could move 11 of the state’s 12 seats into Democratic hands.

Cline’s district would change dramatically if voters approve the plan, from one that Trump won by 24 percentage points in 2024 to one that favored former Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points, according to The Downballot.

After Cline, Rep. Guy Reschenthaler, R-Pa., is poised to return. But the next three members on the dais — Reps. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, and Julia Letlow, R-La. — will all be leaving the House.

Hinson and Letlow are both running for Senate with Trump’s endorsement, though Letlow is in a closer race, facing off against incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La. Gonzales is retiring amid a scandal involving an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide.

While not yet in position for a subcommittee leadership post, House Freedom Caucus members Michael Cloud, R-Texas, and Andrew Clyde, R-Ga., move much closer to the dais because of the exodus of GOP members. Cloud will move to right behind Reschenthaler, followed by Rep. Michael Guest, R-Miss., and Clyde.

Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Mont., is also retiring. And further down the list, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., is in another close race, rated a Toss-Up.

Democratic turnover

There is significantly less potential for major changes on the Democratic side, though a handful of senior appropriators could be on their way out.

Financial Services Subcommittee ranking member Steny H. Hoyer, D-Md., is retiring after a lengthy career on the committee and in Democratic leadership. Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Wis., is next in line to be the top Democrat on that subcommittee based on seniority.

A more major shuffling of Democratic subcommittee leaders could happen if two vulnerable ranking members lose their reelection efforts. Energy-Water Subcommittee ranking member Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, the longest-serving woman in congressional history, is in a race rated Tilt Republican in a district that has become more red after redistricting.

If Kaptur were to lose, Transportation-HUD Subcommittee ranking member James E. Clyburn, D-S.C., and Military Construction-VA Subcommittee ranking member Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., are next in line for the role if they want to leave their current slots.

If they chose to stay where they are, Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., could take over the Energy-Water Subcommittee.

Homeland Security Subcommittee ranking member Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, who was facing bribery charges before being pardoned by Trump last year, is in a race rated Tilt Democratic.

If he were to lose, Rep. Lauren Underwood, D-Ill., would be in position to move back into the position, which she held in an interim role while Cuellar was facing charges.

Only one other Democratic appropriator, Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman of New Jersey, has thus far announced plans to retire. Two more are in competitive reelection races, though both are favored: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, D-Wash., is in a race rated Tilt Democratic, and Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nev., is in a race rated Lean Democratic.